Michael Oliver: Gold Could Hit $9,000 as Bonds Break

Michael Oliver, founder of Momentum Structural Analysis https://www.olivermsa.com and veteran market technician, joins me to break down what he sees as a major shift away from paper assets and toward commodities and monetary metals.

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Recording Date 9-10-2026. In this episode, Michael explains why weakening Treasury bonds, rising yields, a vulnerable U.S. dollar, and continued monetary expansion could become the forces driving the next major market rotation. We examine his bearish dollar thesis, the yen’s potential turn, and a money supply that has increased nearly 50% since COVID. Michael argues that stocks have absorbed enormous liquidity since the post-2008 QE era, but with equities now looking like a bubble by his metrics and government bonds losing their traditional safe-haven appeal, capital may increasingly seek alternatives.

I also dig into Michael’s bullish commodity, gold, and silver outlook. He highlights the Bloomberg Commodity Index near 146 versus its 2008 peak around 235 and identifies a breakout from a roughly 16-year declining channel. Michael believes commodity-related stocks, agriculture, oil, base-metal miners, and ETFs such as MOO could benefit. Gold’s previous major bull markets delivered roughly eightfold advances, while the current move from about $1,050 has only quadrupled, supporting his argument for potentially $8,000–$9,000 gold. Silver is even more explosive in his framework, with Michael discussing a theoretical $500 long-term target while emphasizing that silver and precious-metals miners could ultimately outperform gold.

Key Insights In This Episode
✅ Michael expects rising yields, weaker bonds, and a falling dollar to drive the next major monetary-metals move.
✅ Money supply has increased nearly 50% since COVID, reinforcing his long-term inflation and hard-asset thesis.
✅ The Bloomberg Commodity Index has broken a roughly 16-year declining channel and could enter a major second upwave.
✅ Gold could reach $8,000–$9,000 if this bull market merely matches the eightfold magnitude of its prior major advances.
✅ Silver’s historical range produces a theoretical $500 target, while its long-term momentum structure remains bullish.
✅ Michael expects silver and precious-metals miners to outperform gold as capital rotates away from stocks and government bonds.

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Chapters
00:00 Macro Outlook and Treasury Bond Warning
03:08 Yen Turn and Dollar Weakness
05:56 The Dollar Could Become an Event
07:27 Money Supply and Real Inflation
09:02 Nearly 50% Money Supply Expansion Since Covid
14:56 Historic Commodity Rotation
17:42 Bloomberg Commodity Index
19:41 Gold Bull Market Outlook
23:01 Silver’s Massive Upside Potential
24:38 Gold at $4,500 and Silver Breakout
26:08 Silver Gold and Miners Turn Higher
27:43 Premium Commodity Outlook

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